Conrad Qi, an economic data scientist associate at The Conference Board, noted that the index is currently only 0.6% higher than its level a year ago, pointing to modest payroll growth in the coming months. Volatility earlier this year—driven by seasonal fluctuations in education and post-World Cup adjustments in the leisure sector—has obscured the broader trend, but current data indicates a stable, if measured, expansion.
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US Labor Market Shows Resilience as Employment Trends Index Rebounds
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index climbed to 107.71 in July, recovering from declines in May and June. This composite indicator, which tracks the trajectory of payroll employment, suggests that despite a low-hiring and low-firing environment, the underlying momentum in the American labor market remains firmly positive.
Small businesses are driving much of this activity. The share of firms reporting unfilled positions surged to 36% in July, reaching its highest point since June 2025. Simultaneously, initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to their lowest level since September 2022, signaling that layoffs remain constrained. Other contributors to the index's growth included a rise in job openings to 7.53 million and a 0.2% increase in real manufacturing and trade sales. While involuntary part-time work and industrial production acted as slight drags on the index, the overall data suggests a labor market that continues to find its footing.
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