Arthur Hayes bets on Fed facility to spark Bitcoin rally

The proposal centers on the FIMA repo facility, which currently allows foreign central banks to exchange Treasuries for dollars. Hayes argues that if the Fed lifts its $60 billion per-counterparty cap, Japan could access the necessary dollar liquidity to stabilize the yen without destabilizing the bond market. While Japan’s Ministry of Finance officially confirmed plans to utilize the facility following a coordinated intervention on July 31, the actual mechanics remain restricted by current Fed limitations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled support for a larger facility, yet data from the Fed’s August 6 balance sheet shows no surge in usage, with outstanding agreements remaining at just $1 million. The market impact remains speculative; Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, showing little immediate reaction to the thesis. Critics point out that FIMA is a short-term, collateralized backstop rather than a permanent stimulus program. For the bullish scenario to materialize, analysts are watching for a formal policy shift at the Fed—specifically an increase in the transaction cap or an expansion of eligible participants to include entities like Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund.