Bitcoin Climbs Past $64K as Inflation Data Stabilizes Fed Outlook

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.1% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index, bringing the annual rate to 3.4%—down from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, cooled to 2.5% annually. While these figures removed the immediate threat of an inflation-driven selloff, the data remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, keeping the central bank's next move a subject of intense speculation.

Analysts note that the market has shifted its focus away from singular macroeconomic reports toward structural drivers like ETF flows and derivatives positioning. Ryan Lee of Bitget Research described the reading as constructive, noting that it neither forces a hawkish re-pricing nor provides a definitive dovish catalyst. With Polymarket traders currently assigning a 67% probability to interest rates remaining unchanged in September, market participants are looking toward the Producer Price Index for further evidence of inflationary trends within the supply chain.

Despite the relief rally, derivatives markets signal lingering investor caution. Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs observed that traders are paying a premium for downside protection, with put options near $60,000 commanding higher costs than calls at the $70,000 level. For Bitcoin to sustain its momentum, analysts identify the $65,021 to $65,510 range as a critical resistance zone. Failure to secure a daily close above this band could leave the asset vulnerable to a retest of the $62,000 level as energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the broader investment landscape.