Bernstein maintains $140 Circle target despite legislative uncertainty

The brokerage, led by Gautam Chhugani, notes that USDC supply has finally broken a six-month stagnation, expanding by approximately $1.7 billion over the past week. This resurgence is fueled by the stablecoin’s deepening role as collateral within decentralized finance and tokenized capital markets. Bernstein reports that adjusted transaction volume, excluding bot and high-frequency noise, is currently tracking at an annualized rate of $17 trillion for 2026—a 60% increase over the previous year.

Beyond basic trading, Circle is gaining traction in machine-to-machine commerce. Its Agent Stack platform now supports over 900 paid services, with the x402 protocol seeing 99.3% of its payment volume settled in USDC. Bernstein argues that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass during the September session, the vacuum would likely be filled by increased regulatory intervention from the SEC and CFTC, a shift the firm believes would not impede Circle's fundamental business model.

While competitors like the Open USD consortium have pressured Circle’s margins—leading to a recent downgrade by Mizuho—Circle maintains a significant lead in institutional infrastructure. Recent integrations with BNY and Fireblocks, alongside its pending national trust bank status, underscore a strategy focused on deep-rooted financial utility. Bernstein maintains its outlook, noting that regulatory outcomes regarding stablecoin rewards remain manageable for Circle’s existing institutional framework.